Compare a prediction-market probability against your own estimate, then apply sizing rules you define to see a modelled position. Calculations only — nothing here connects to a market, wallet or exchange.
ⓘThis tool does not execute anything. No API, no live odds, no wallet connection. Every probability, signal rule and risk limit below is typed in by you — the result is a modelled scenario, never a recommendation.
1 · Market
2 · Signal
3 · Risk
4 · Result
Prediction Market
If YES/NO prices are entered, implied probability is derived automatically.
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Your View & Signal
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Modelled edge based on your estimate — not a claim that your estimate is correct.
65 / 100
Signal = |probability difference| × this rate, capped at 100.
— / 100
Risk Model
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% of maximum allocation used at each signal band.
Second Signal (optional)
Off by default. Combine a second event into a weighted signal. Limited to two events. Weights are normalized automatically if they do not total 100.
Weights do not total 100%; the tool will normalize them automatically.
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Probability Comparison
Market—
— Your view
0%50%100%
Signal Strength
0 / 100 — modelled allocation $0 / $0 maximum
Example data
Prediction market
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Bullish
Market probability
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Your estimate
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Difference
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Signal
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Modelled position
$0
Signal does not meet the threshold you entered.
This result follows the rules and assumptions you entered.
Scenario Tester
See how your model behaves if the market probability moves, without changing your live inputs above.
Current model
$0
At scenario probability
$0
About this tool
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market expresses a market-derived probability for a future event, based on what participants are willing to pay for exposure to each outcome.
What does this tool do?
Prediction Signal Lab lets you compare that market probability with your own estimate, and apply your own predefined sizing rules to see a modelled position.
What does it not do?
It does not determine whether your probability estimate is correct. It does not recommend a trade. It does not execute anything.
Prediction Signal Lab is an educational and strategy-modelling tool. It does not execute trades or provide financial advice. All probabilities, signal rules and risk limits are supplied by the user. Prediction probabilities can move rapidly and can be wrong.